Every year, the U.S. Census Bureau releases its population estimates and investors, developers, and operators recalibrate. The Vintage 2025 estimates released in January 2026 landed with an unusual amount of headline anxiety: total U.S. population growth slowed to 1.78 million people, roughly half of 2024's pace. Immigration fell sharply. A few states actually lost people.

But national headlines can be misleading when it comes to multifamily investing. The apartment business runs on local renter demand, and locally, the story is far more interesting than a single national number suggests. The data reveals a resorting of American migration that, for investors in the right markets, is not a warning, it's a confirmation.

Here's how we're reading the 2025 population data at Faris Capital Partners, and what it means for value-add apartment investing in 2026 and beyond.

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1) The National Slowdown: What Actually Happened

The U.S. added 1.78 million people between July 2024 and July 2025, the slowest pace of growth since the COVID-19 pandemic, per Census Bureau Vintage 2025 estimates reported in January 2026. The prior year, the country had added 3.2 million people. That's a dramatic deceleration, and the cause is specific:

• Net international migration fell 54%, from 2.7 million new arrivals in 2024 to 1.3 million in 2025. This decline, driven by stricter immigration enforcement and policy shifts, was the single largest factor behind the national slowdown.
• The fertility rate fell to a record low in 2024, continuing a long-run trend that reduces natural population growth over time.
• Domestic migration patterns were more stable, Americans continued to move in search of affordability and opportunity, largely following the same Sun Belt and secondary market corridors that have defined migration for a decade.

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The critical investor insight: immigration-driven demand and domestic migration-driven demand are not the same thing. Markets that were growing primarily because of international arrivals face a genuine recalibration. Markets growing because Americans are actively choosing to move there, for jobs, affordability, and quality of life are on much more durable footing.

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Investor takeaway: Don't let the national headline drive local underwriting. The question isn't "did the U.S. grow slower?" The question is "did the specific submarket I'm investing in continue to attract residents with incomes and lifestyles that support apartment demand?" For our target markets, the answer is yes.

In simple terms: The U.S. grew more slowly last year because fewer people moved here from other countries. But Americans who are moving are still mostly heading to the same affordable, job-rich cities in the South. That's an important distinction for anyone investing in apartments.

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2) The South Held Firm And Our Markets Led It

Despite the national slowdown, the South remained the clear engine of U.S. population growth. The South grew at 0.9% in 2025, more than four times the rate of the Northeast (0.2%), according to Census estimates. And within the South, the specific markets where Faris Capital Partners operates posted some of the strongest numbers in the nation:

• Texas led all states in absolute population gains with 391,243 new residents in 2025 (Census Vintage 2025). The U-Haul Growth Index ranked Texas the No. 1 growth state for the year, up from No. 2 in 2024. High birth rates, sustained domestic in-migration, and one of the nation's most diversified economies continue to underpin demand across Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston.
• North Carolina added 145,907 residents, third nationally in absolute terms, with the Carolinas broadly ranking among the fastest-growing states by percentage. Charleston specifically continues to benefit from corporate relocations, a growing tech and logistics sector, and a lifestyle draw that attracts both younger professionals and downsizing Boomers.
• Atlanta ranks third-fastest-growing metro in the nation per U.S. Census Bureau data cited by MMG Real Estate Advisors. Atlanta's position reflects a deep and diversified employment base, large and broad renter pool, and consistent in-migration, exactly what a passive real estate investing thesis needs under its feet.
• Florida added nearly 197,000 new residents, second nationally in absolute terms. While some parts of South Florida are recalibrating as immigration-driven growth slows, Tampa continues to benefit from robust domestic in-migration, a growing tech and healthcare employment base, and one of the most affordable cost-of-living profiles among major Florida metros.

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Investor takeaway: The population map is not moving away from our markets, it's concentrating within them. As national growth slows and becomes more selective, the markets with genuine domestic demand drivers, jobs, affordability, quality of life pull further ahead of markets that were riding immigration tailwinds alone.

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In simple terms: Even though the country grew more slowly, the cities where we invest kept attracting new residents. Texas, the Carolinas, Atlanta, and Tampa are still places where Americans are choosing to move because of jobs and affordability. That's a solid foundation for apartment demand.

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3) Why Domestic Migration Is the More Durable Demand Driver

There's a meaningful difference between population growth fueled by international migration and growth fueled by domestic relocation. For multifamily real estate investors, that distinction matters for several reasons:

• Domestic movers tend to be renters by circumstance and choice. With the National Association of Home Builders estimating that 74.9% of U.S. households cannot afford a median-priced new home at current prices, Americans moving for jobs or quality of life are overwhelmingly entering the rental market, not the for-sale market. That translates directly to apartment demand.
• Domestic movers are chasing affordability. Zillow's analysis of its own platform data showed that the hottest housing markets of 2025 were dominated by affordable cities, a pattern that confirms renters and buyers alike are optimizing for value. Our focus on value-add Class B apartments priced below new Class A luxury puts us directly in the path of that preference.
• Job-driven migration is stickier. When someone moves to Dallas for a job at a major employer, they're not leaving when immigration policy changes. The George W. Bush Institute's analysis of corporate headquarters relocations between 2018 and 2023 found that Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Nashville, Phoenix, and Austin were the top five destinations for corporate HQ moves, a structural tailwind for apartment demand that doesn't depend on any single policy environment.
• Income growth supports rent collection. Arbor/Chandan Economics data shows that income growth began outpacing rent growth in 2025 for the first time in several years, a healthy normalization that supports stronger renewal rates and more predictable multifamily cash flow going forward.

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Investor takeaway: Domestic migration driven by affordability and employment is the most durable foundation for apartment demand and it's the type of demand that has consistently characterized our target markets. A slowdown in immigration reshuffles the deck, but doesn't remove the cards our thesis is built on.

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In simple terms: People who move from one American city to another for a job or a better cost of living tend to need apartments. They're not buying homes because homes are too expensive right now. That predictable flow of domestic movers is exactly what keeps well-run apartments occupied.

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4) The Nuance: Where the Map Is Actually Changing

A complete read of the 2025 data requires honesty about where conditions are genuinely shifting and what that means for market selection going forward.

• Parts of South Florida are recalibrating. Miami saw asking rents fall as apartment developers poured in supply at the same time immigration-driven demand softened (Bisnow). This is the cautionary tale: markets where growth was heavily immigration-dependent and overdeveloped simultaneously face a tougher road. Our Tampa focus is deliberate, it is a domestic-migration market with a more manageable supply pipeline than Miami or Fort Lauderdale.
• Texas growth is slowing at the margin. Texas remains the No. 1 state in absolute gains, but its percentage growth rate slipped 60 basis points year-over-year to 1.2% in 2025 (Bisnow). This is a pace normalization, not a reversal and both Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston retain employer depth, diverse economies, and affordable rent-to-income ratios that underpin long-term demand.
• The Midwest is quietly emerging. Minneapolis and Indianapolis both flipped from net domestic outmigration to net in-migration in the most recent year (Redfin/Census). While these aren't our current investment markets, the trend confirms the broader thesis: renters are chasing affordability wherever they find it, and value-oriented communities in growing metros capture that demand across regions.
• Gateway cities are stabilizing. Cushman & Wakefield's census analysis noted that the nation's largest cities are growing again, in some cases outperforming the national average, as international immigration concentrates in urban centers with established immigrant communities. This makes gateway cities less of an outflow source, which moderates the migration tailwinds to the Sun Belt somewhat. The net effect is a more balanced, less dramatic migration picture than the pandemic era, which is actually healthy for multifamily fundamentals.

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Investor takeaway: Market selection has always mattered in apartment investing. It matters more now. Not all Sun Belt markets are equal, and the immigration-driven demand story requires closer scrutiny. We focus on markets with diverse domestic demand drivers: jobs, affordability, corporate relocations, university anchors, that don't rely on any single variable to keep renter pools full.

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In simple terms: Not every city in the South is benefiting equally. Some places that grew fast because of immigration are now slowing down. The cities that are growing because Americans are actively choosing to move there, for jobs and lower costs, are in much better shape. We invest in those cities.

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5) What This Means for Apartment Supply and Demand in 2026

The population data doesn't exist in a vacuum, it interacts directly with the supply reset we've been tracking all year. Here's how the two forces combine:

• Slower population growth + slower supply growth = a more balanced market. MMG Real Estate Advisors' 2025 National Forecast projects new multifamily deliveries declining by over 35% in 2025, with further reductions ahead. When supply and demand both moderate, the result is typically steadier occupancy and measured rent growth, a far better environment for investors than either a boom or a bust.
• Domestic renter demand is not disappearing. The Arbor/Chandan Multifamily Market Snapshot (February 2026) notes that multifamily rental households hit record highs in 2025, even as population growth slowed nationally. That's because the homeownership affordability gap keeps growing. When buying a home costs nearly three times what renting costs (Viking Capital 2026 Market Report), people don't stop needing places to live.
• The Atlanta market specifically is positioned for continued improvement. MMG's 2025 Atlanta Forecast shows net absorption surpassing new completions for the first time in nearly three years, with the construction pipeline contracting and rent growth projected to rebound. Atlanta's consistent ranking as a top-three fastest-growing metro is not accidental, it reflects real, durable demand from a diversified renter base.
• Submarket selection within growth metros is increasingly critical. The Bisnow analysis notes that even within high-performing metros, submarkets with heavy new supply face pressure while others thrive. Our focus on Class B renovated communities priced below Class A in suburban and infill locations within growth corridors positions us in the part of each market that captures the broadest renter pool without competing on luxury concessions.

Investor takeaway: Population data is a leading indicator for rental demand, but it must be read carefully and locally. In our target markets, the combination of ongoing domestic in-migration, tightening supply, and a persistent homeownership affordability gap continues to support the multifamily investing thesis heading into 2026 and beyond.

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In simple terms: Even though overall U.S. population growth slowed, the number of people renting apartments actually hit a record high. That's because buying a home is still very expensive. As long as homeownership stays out of reach for most Americans, apartment demand stays strong, especially in cities where people actually want to live.

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6) Our Market-by-Market Read

Here's how the 2025 population data maps directly to each of our target markets:

• Atlanta: Third-fastest-growing metro in the nation (U.S. Census Bureau). MMG's Atlanta Forecast shows absorption exceeding completions for the first time in three years, rents returning to positive growth, and nearly all 39 submarkets projected to show positive rent increases by year-end 2025. Atlanta's employment base, projected to expand 8% through 2029 (MMG Employment Expansion Trend Report), provides a durable demand foundation that most metros can't match.
• Tampa: Florida added nearly 197,000 new residents in 2025. Unlike Miami and Fort Lauderdale, Tampa's supply pipeline is more manageable, its rent-to-income ratios remain attractive, and its domestic in-migration base is driven by a growing tech, healthcare, and financial services employment cluster. Tampa is positioned as the most durable Florida market in our portfolio for exactly these reasons.
• Charleston: South Carolina was the fastest-growing state by percentage in 2025 at 1.5% (Census Vintage 2025). Charleston's growth is driven by corporate relocations, a growing port economy, and a quality-of-life draw that consistently attracts both young professionals and retiring Boomers. United Van Lines ranked South Carolina as the No. 2 inbound state nationally, a signal of sustained migration momentum that is rarely discussed relative to the state's size.
• Dallas-Fort Worth: Texas added 391,243 residents, No. 1 nationally in absolute terms. The DFW metro specifically led the nation in apartment investment volume in 2025 at $9.6 billion (Arbor, February 2026 Snapshot). Corporate headquarters continue relocating to the metro, deepening the employment base and sustaining renter demand across income levels.
• Houston: Anchored by energy, healthcare, and logistics employment, Houston's domestic in-migration held steady in 2025. Supply is easing on our timeline, Houston was identified in our January 2026 newsletter as already seeing supply drop below pre-pandemic norms, making it one of the most favorable value-add multifamily environments in the Sun Belt right now.

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Investor takeaway: Each of our five markets shows up in the 2025 population data as a domestic in-migration leader, not an immigration-dependent market. That's the key distinction that makes our portfolio resilient to the policy environment that drove the national headline slowdown.

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In simple terms: Each city where we invest was still growing in 2025, not because of immigration, but because Americans were actively choosing to move there. That's the kind of growth you can underwrite with confidence.

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7) What We're Watching Next

• Annual Census updates: The Vintage 2025 estimates are the most current data available. Metro-level breakdowns in the June 2026 release will give us more granular confirmation of submarket-specific trends.
• Immigration policy trajectory: If enforcement continues at the current pace, markets heavily weighted toward international arrivals will continue to recalibrate. Markets with domestic demand foundations, like ours, will widen their relative advantage.
• Household formation data: The key question isn't just how many people moved, it's how many new renter households formed. Watch for Fannie Mae and JBREC household formation updates, which will give a cleaner read on the actual renter demand pipeline.
• Absorption vs. deliveries by submarket: As supply eases and migration continues, the markets where absorption outpaces deliveries are the ones that will see occupancy gains and concession burn-off first. We're tracking this monthly in each of our target metros.

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Our 2026 Playbook

• Markets: Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Atlanta, Tampa, Charleston, each a domestic in-migration leader with diverse employment, growing renter pools, and manageable supply pipelines.
• Acquisition edge: Below replacement cost with day-one or near-term cash flow in submarkets where population data confirms durable renter demand.
• Value creation: Livability-first capex: kitchens, LVP flooring, lighting, bath refresh, smart access, pet amenities, package rooms, safety lighting, and landscaping, upgrades that attract and retain value-conscious renters of all ages.
• Operations: Renewal-centric mindset, responsive maintenance, transparent fees, and clinical pricing. Residents who chose our markets deliberately tend to stay, we operate to make that renewal easy.
• Capital structure: Conservative leverage, assumption-first where it makes sense, and multiple exit paths (hold/refi/sell) based on data, not headlines.

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Bottom Line

The U.S. grew more slowly in 2025, mostly because immigration fell sharply. But Americans who are moving on their own, for jobs, lower costs, and a better quality of life, are still heading to the same cities: Texas, the Carolinas, Atlanta, Tampa. Those are exactly the markets where we invest in apartments. And because buying a home is still very expensive for most Americans, the demand for well-run, fairly priced apartments in those cities remains strong. The population data doesn't undermine our strategy, it confirms it.

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